Our prediction market trading record
We run a paper account on real prediction markets and publish every position, including the strategies that lost money.
$12,340.97
$2,427.63
24.28%
151
72.1%
16
Which strategies actually made money
We started with $10,000 in paper funds. So far 44 positions have won and 17 have lost. The rest are still open or waiting to settle.
This is the part most sites leave out. We ran several strategies side by side. Here is what each one returned, worked out from every position that has resolved.
| Strategy | Result |
|---|---|
| Placed by hand | $2,284.31 |
| News-driven picks | $287.97 |
| Consensus gate (resolution clock) | $205.47 |
| Consensus gate (longshot fade) | $0.48 |
| Automated signal (AI fair-value estimate) | $-1.53 |
| Risk monitor | $-1.69 |
| Research-led picks | $-168.00 |
| Arbitrage scanner | $-184.64 |
The strongest performer is placed by hand. Now the caveat that matters more than the headline. Two positions produced 90% of everything this account has made. Strip those two out and there is very little left. That is a small sample carrying a couple of lucky results, not evidence that anyone here has cracked these markets.
The biggest single positions
| Market | Staked | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wimbledon WTA: Karolina Muchova vs Linda Noskova | $1,750.00 | $1,457.69 |
| Swedish Open: Nuno Borges vs Grigor Dimitrov | $1,880.00 | $724.86 |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | $1,760.00 | $287.97 |
| Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs JD Gaming (BO3) – VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins | $5.00 | $137.19 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | $410.00 | $135.99 |
| France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 | $50.00 | $-50.00 |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | $70.00 | $-70.00 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | $410.00 | $-410.00 |
Open positions
| Market | Side | Staked | Price now | Chosen by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United States acquire any part of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027 – | No | $5.00 | 0.048 | Consensus gate (longshot fade) |
| Will Trump end the Federal Reserve before Jan 20, 2029 – Before Jan 20, 20 | No | $5.00 | 0.060 | Consensus gate (longshot fade) |
| Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 de | No | $4.65 | 0.195 | Automated signal (AI fair-value estimate) |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? | No | $5.00 | 0.043 | Consensus gate (resolution clock) |
| Will Xi Jinping leave General Secretary of the Communist Party of China be | No | $5.00 | 0.030 | Consensus gate (longshot fade) |
| Will Lebron James be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | No | $4.99 | 0.001 | Automated signal (AI fair-value estimate) |
| Will Rahm Emanuel be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | No | $5.00 | 0.045 | Consensus gate (longshot fade) |
| Will Chicago C win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship – Chicago C? | No | $5.00 | 0.078 | Consensus gate (longshot fade) |
| Will at least 4 Senate Republican members lose their primary in 2026 – 4 o | No | $5.00 | 0.026 | Consensus gate (longshot fade) |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | No | $5.00 | 0.036 | Consensus gate (longshot fade) |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | $3.89 | 0.175 | Automated signal (AI fair-value estimate) |
| How high will unemployment get before 2027 – Above 7%? | No | $5.00 | 0.010 | Consensus gate (longshot fade) |
| Will Marjorie Taylor Greene be the nominee for the Presidency for the Repu | No | $5.00 | 0.009 | Consensus gate (longshot fade) |
| Will Restore Britain win the next U.K. election – Restore Britain party? | No | $5.00 | 0.048 | Consensus gate (longshot fade) |
| Will Ruben Gallego be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028? | No | $2.87 | 0.005 | Automated signal (AI fair-value estimate) |
| ETH price on Jan 1, 2027 – 1,500 to 1,749.99? | No | $10.00 | 0.108 | Placed by hand |
Total paper money at risk in open positions: $81.40.
The last column names the strategy that chose each position. Where a position was opened by the consensus gate, a second strategy had to agree with the first before it was placed.
What we are testing next
The automated signal estimates a fair probability for a market, compares it to the price, and trades when the gap is wide enough. Over its first run it lost money. Rather than switch it off, we now run a second copy that takes the opposite side of every call it makes. Both run hourly against the same markets, so in a few weeks we will know whether the signal was actually wrong or just unlucky.
We also found and fixed a real bug while checking the record. The model sometimes returned a flat 50 percent when it had no view. On a market priced near zero, that gap looked like a huge edge. It was not. It was a bug. Those trades are still in the numbers above. We have not quietly removed them.
Why this is on a betting site
People talk about prediction markets as if they are sharper than bookmakers. We wanted to check that ourselves before telling anyone about it, which is why the account runs on paper first.
One thing to be clear about. Polymarket holds no South African licence. If you trade there you carry the risk yourself, and none of the protections you get from a licensed SA bookmaker apply.
Want to see the markets we are trading?
These are the same markets our paper account trades. Read the risk section above first, and remember the platform is not licensed here.
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